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January 22, 2008

Poll: What Will AoSHQ Fredheads Do Now?

Please, only bona fide Fredheads on this (honor system). No Romney supporters voting for Romney or the like.

Clarification: This poll isn't about predictions. It's meant to ask genuine Thompson supporters what their current intentions are. I didn't mean to ask non-Thompson supporters for speculations about what Thompson supporters will do, though I admit the question isn't phrased very well.

I guess I should have made the question Who Will You, Genuine Thompson Supporters, Support Now? Take that to be the actual question.

No speculation and no non-Thompson supporters.

I've omitted Ron Paul as a choice for obvious reasons. If Ron Paul were on the list, we'd find that 99.9% of former Thompson supporters were suddenly on board with the rEVOLution.

Early Results... It's a small sample and not scientific but I think it's somewhat representative as it seems to track with the new preferences expressed in the comments.

So far, it looks like Fred's 10% of supporters won't have a major impact on the race. About half will go to Romney, giving him a nice but hardly decisive bump, and a quarter to Giuliani, giving him almost nothing (except perhaps if that tiny bump is enough to put him just barely past McCain in, say, New York).

The last quarter splits evenly between McCain and "Write Fred In" with a tiny showing for the Huckster.

If Giuliani doesn't win Florida -- which he might or might not -- he's all done too, and then his pocket of voters will have a hard choice too.

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posted by Ace at 04:56 PM

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