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January 08, 2008

Once More Unto the Breach, Dear Morons, Once More!

The New Hampshire primary has officially begun. Two tiny towns have followed their tradition of voting just after midnight. Statewide polling will start, depending on location, at either 6 or 7am. Polls close this evening, again depending on location, at 7 or 8pm.

For the Republicans, the results from Dixville "First in the Nation" Notch and Hart's "No, We're First" Location:

10 votes for McCain
5 votes for Huckabee
4 votes for Paul
3 votes for Romney
1 vote for Giuliani

On the Democratic side:

16 votes for Obama
3 votes for Edwards
3 votes for Clinton

Of course, these numbers don't really mean much, but it looks like Hunter and Richardson are getting off to a slow start. And Obama managed to pay off most of one New Hampshire hamlet, right?

Okay, more seriously, this is going to be a long day for newsphiles. All eyes will be on New Hampshire with media exit polls recited ad nauseum throughout. Despite the polling barrage to which New Hampshirites have been subjected over the past month, the results may surprise.

McCain has shot ahead in the past week, despite Romney's 2 to 1 advantage in advertising. Huckabee is also enjoying a bit of a post-Iowa bump at the same time that Giuliani's already weak showing is getting weaker. Clinton's campaign seems to have had the wind knocked out of it (no one likes a crying senator) and another Obama victory seems like a sure thing.

The big deal here is that New Hampshire has open primaries and most voters are registered independent. That means that voters abandoning Clinton may not necessarily switch to Obama. Instead, they can cross to McCain, most likely, or possibly Giuliani.

Which means that I expect both Obama and McCain to win. I just think they're going to win by more than the latest polls show (Obama +9, McCain +5).

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posted by Gabriel Malor at 03:15 AM

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