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November 29, 2007

3rd Quarter GDP Growth Raised to 4.9%, The Best Since

The highest since 2003.

And what is the big news in the MSM?

The looming recession, of course.

U.S. may dodge recession, but slow growth to hit hard Wed Nov 28, 2007 1:49pm EST By Joanne Morrison - Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The economy may dodge the bullet of a recession in the year ahead but it's almost certain that there will be months of slow growth that will create hardship for many businesses and consumers.

Economists expect troubles in the housing and financial sectors to deepen, and many have cut already low forecasts for U.S. economic growth as stress in credit markets began to build anew in recent weeks.

While housing accounts for a relatively small percentage of the economy, it has a disproportionate effect on consumer behavior because of the "wealth effect." People spend more based on their perception of the value of their homes.

With real estate prices falling and credit tight, a growing chorus of economists think the world's largest economy is about to topple into recession, and even those who don't see a full-blown downturn warn of rising unemployment and potential pay cuts as businesses seek to tighten their belts.

"A recession is more likely than not at this point," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "It's still very possible that we can avoid a recession, but it's going to be impossible to avoid what we view as a very weak economy through next spring -- and that will be very painful."

I think it's proper to speculate about a potential future recession. They always have come before and will continue doing so. The only question is when.

But the media wishes to discuss past recessions and future recessions exclusively. It is unwilling to acknowledge that we are presently in a period of strong growth. The only time current strong growth is ever given a mention at all is in the media's constant these-good-times-shall-soon-end stories. And I wouldn't mind such stories, either, if in any other story they admitted we are in fact currently in good economic times.

But they won't admit that. The only two stories they'll report are 1) Times Are Tough followed by 2) And They're About To Get Tougher Still.

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posted by Ace at 12:59 PM

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