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November 07, 2006

Chill!

To put an exclamation point on it, these are just exit polls. They are polls. They are subject to the same pro-Democratic skew as telephone calls. Perhaps more so -- Kerry was winning Pennsylvania, according to the exit polls, by a far greater lead than even telelphone polls had indicated. (And both overstated the Democratic lead -- exit polls moreso.)

With Santorum behind, supposedly, by 23, we can assume he's toast, if we can also assume these numbers are even accurate -- which we can't. Different people are being leaked different numbers.

Anyone "behind," supposedly, by eight or less in these polls is very much still in it. Again, even assuming the polls are real numbers, and not skewed figures selectively leaked to not-terribly-professional bloggers in order to depress Republican turnout.


William Kristol, A Real Eeyore, is surprisingly chipper, and notes that exit polls tend to skew +7 or so for Democrats.


The Fox Decision Desk is "skeptical" of these exit polls.


Juan Williams believes these numbers implicitly -- they've taken safeguards to prevent 2004 again! -- but then, he was just on Cloud Nine at this time in 2004, too.

There's just no way to avoid the fact that Republicans just don't feel like sharing their views with a plucky, perky young American Studies co-ed who pretty much is wearing a NARAL advertisement across her forehead.


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posted by Ace at 07:32 PM

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