Tea Leaves

Chris Matthews is beaming like Christmas came early.

On the other hand, he's talking up MoveOn.org's $250,000 bounty for information leading to a conviction on voter suppression charges... why talk up cheatin' if you're winnin' it?

As most people know, you can kinda-sorta guage what the still embargoed numbers are saying based on the MSM's body-language and chipperness. If they're happy, we should, maybe be sad.

Then again, they were very, very happy in 2004, at least until seven or eight o'clock or so.

And then actual votes started getting tallied, and they all became very, very sad.

If it means anything, Ken Mehlman is projecting confidence, and it doesn't appear to be obviously a brave face.

On the other hand, he's talking up absentee voting, which always seems to me to be something you toss out there as a forlorn hope.

In Missouri... Three Republican counties have "record turnout," according to a clerk in Jasper county.

Supposedly... Allen is down, according only to those not-terribly-reliable early exit polls. Hannity just said this, JackM. tells me.

Also...GOP sources say exit polling shows 32.9% of 2004's levels in Republican areas, and only 32.5% of 2004's levels in Democratic areas.

I don't know what this means. It's such a tiny figure it's trivial. Furthermore, while some point out that more Republicans vote after work than Democrats, is that true?

If it's true, why are the polls ALWAYS held open for five or six additional hours in St. Louis due to "long lines"? Seems the Democrats start busing in some very late voters just before (and just after) the deadline.

Thanks again to JackM.

Claim From TNR's The Plank: A Democratic operative says all Senate races, except Ford's, is "looking good" for them, based on exit polls.

What does "looking good" mean? They're competitive? We already knew that.

Furthermore, what the hell do I care what a Democratic operative is saying? Or for that matter, what exit polls are saying?

A Bigger Tea Leaf? Ken Mehlman kept warning about putting any stock in exit poll information. I think he said he didn't know anything about what they'd show, but if he said that, I don't believe him.

He may just be being prudent, but if I had to guess, I'd say that Mehlman thinks exit polls show Republicans behind.

But then, they're not very accurate, and can't predict outcomes in tight elections. The margin of error is too big. If this election winds up with a difference in raw votes of 4% or less, the exit polls can easily have the results backwards, as they did in 2004.

Only if the exit polls show a big difference is there reason for worry, and even then, the actual differential probably won't be half as big as the exit polls claim.

posted by Ace at 06:31 PM

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