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November 03, 2006

Poll: Predict The Elections

My math may be screwy, particularly on the House races. If' I'm wrong about what kind of majority the net pick-up results in, go with the net pick-up as the thing you're picking. The resulting majority thing should be taken as a guide.


Prediction: House Results
Dems Pick Up 30+ Seats (Dem Majority 16+)
Dems Pick Up 25-29 Seats (Dem Majority 11-15)
Dems Pick Up 20-24 Seats (Dem Majority 6-10)
Dems Pick Up 15-19 Seats (Dem Majority 1-5)
Dems Pick Up 10-14 Seats (REP. Majoirity 1-5)
Dems Pick Up 5-9 Seats (REP. Majority 6-10)
Dems Pick Up 0-4 Seats (REP Majority 11-15)
Republicans Pick up 1-5 Seats (REP Majority 16-20)
Republicans Pick Up 6+ Seats (REP. Majority 21+)
  
Free polls from Pollhost.com


Prediction: Senate Results
Democrats Pick Up 8+ Seats (Dem Majority 3+)
Democrats Pick Up 7 Seats (Dem Majority 2)
Democrats Pick Up 6 Seats (Dem Majority 1)
Democrats Pick Up 5 Seats (50/50 TIE; Cheney Breaks Tie)
Democrats Pick Up 4 Seats (REP. Majority 1)
Democrats Pick Up 3 Seats (REP Majority 2)
Democrats Pick Up 2 Seats (REP Majority 3)
Democrats Pick Up 1 Seat (REP Majority 4)
Democrats Pick Up No Seats (REP Majority 5)
Republicans Gain One Or More Seats (REP Majority 6+)
  
Free polls from Pollhost.com

Early Analysis of Predictions: The AoS crew is pessimistic on the elections. The most popular choices seem to be predicting that the GOP almost loses the House and almost loses the Senate, suggesting, to me anyway, many think we'll actuallly lose both but want to pick a choice that doesn't quite say that.

I think you're being a little too pessimistic as a group on the Senate. Corker seems to have a solid lead, Steele's opponent just went full-on drooling imbecile, and even Conrad Burns is back from the dead.

On the House... I don't know. Just barely hanging on may be a decent prediction... though slightly on the optimistic side.

I think that's what I picked.


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posted by Ace at 08:46 PM

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