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January 04, 2005

Those Exit Polls: Continued Showing Weighted Kerry Lead By 7:33 PM EST

I guess it wasn't the bloggers' fault after all-- the exit-polling company apparently *was* weighting the numbers, but in some way mistakenly.

Key digest:

What it shows: As late as 7:33 P.M. on Election Day, Mitofsky and Lenski were apparently telling their clients (NBC, CBS, CNN, AP, etc.) that after "weighting" Kerry was beating Bush by 9 points among women and losing by only 4 among men. By 1:24 P.M. the next day (see this file) revised results revealed that, in fact, Kerry won women by only 3 points while Bush won men by 11 points. Whoops! ... It wasn't the dumb bloggers who didn't understand on Nov. 2 that they were being leaked "complex displays intended for trained statisticians," as Mitofsky would have it--or the dumb Kerry aides and dumb Bush aides who believed the same numbers. It was that the weighted results Mitofsky's statisticians put out were full of it! ...

But you'll have to go to Kaus for all the links.


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posted by Ace at 02:28 PM

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