Sponsored Content
US Bags Senior Leader of Al Zarqawi Cell | Main | MSM Admission: Tenet Did Not Call Iraq War "Wrong"
October 23, 2004

Polls: Bush Up Nationally, Trails in Ohio, But Can Capture Three Gore States for Win

Ohio remains the key. If Bush holds Ohio and Florida, he wins. It's that simple.

If he loses Ohio, he could still win, but he'd have to draw to pick up the straight.

Time now shows a 5 point Bush lead. Gone are the heady days of double-digit leads, but a lead is still a lead. 51% Bush, 46% Kerry-- and, unless my math has gotten very bad indeed, it seems to me that no number of "undecideds breaking for the challenger" can beat a man who's getting a majority of the decided vote.

Now, I still believe that anyone who wins the popular vote by 4 points or more pretty much must win the electoral college. (Alarming News disagrees, but why should we listen to her? She's merely some sort of campaign official for some important Republican candidate.) But I guess that rule might break down when a particularly important state is heading in a direction contrary to what might be expected.

In any other year, if the Republican is ahead by 3 or 4 points, the Republican wins Ohio, easily. But Ohio has been particularly hurt by the recession and slow job creation of much of the recovery. And Ohio just might go to Kerry.

This Washington Times reports on Bush's strength in Gore states Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and even Minnesota. Bush can afford to lose Ohio-- barely. Just barely.

Gotta win Ohio, though. If we lose Ohio, we're in for a very long night, and worse yet, one that probably won't have a happy ending.

digg this
posted by Ace at 01:40 PM

| Access Comments

Recent Comments
Here's your Ukraine War effort, suckers. Just like we've been telling you:: "And I'll say it again: I love the idea of a gay m ..."

artisanal ette: "[i]His internet presence is gone. He is being pres ..."

Reuben Hick: "[i]His identity and work history/associations were ..."

DB: ">heh, well, I also heard one of truth-telling doc ..."

Sponge - F*ck Joe Biden: "I was completely unaware of the fact that as you'r ..."

Sarah Garcia: "Making money online is more than $15k just by doin ..."

Aetius451AD: "206 >>Memphis won't be bad. >>Memphis has black ..."

Sarah Garcia: "Making money online is more than $15k just by doin ..."

Bitter Clinger: "[i]Wait until it's a big name player like a Patric ..."

JT: "VONDERSCHWANTZ Posted by: rhennigantx Gesundh ..."

Sarah Garcia: "Making money online is more than $15k just by doin ..."

Smell the Glove: "@47, 56 it's like you are saying that everything t ..."

Recent Entries

Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64