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October 18, 2004
Real Clear Politics: Bush Leads Electoral Count, But He's Not Over 270
I'm just posting this because I love the way all that red looks.
There are a couple of unwelcome surprises there. New Hampshire is now in Kerry's column, and Ohio is slightly leaning towards Kerry (although so slightly that RCP calls it a toss-up). Minnesota, which ought to be getable and could shatter Kerry's hopes by going for Bush, nevertheless remains a blue state.
On the other hand, it appears as though Bush could afford to lose Ohio-- but only if he picks up toss-ups Wisconsin and Iowa. I wouldn't bet the farm on that, but it's nice to know there's an out if Bush doesn't pick up the Ohio card.
The Iowa Electronic Markets continue showing a belief in Bush's odds.