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October 03, 2004

Gallup: It's All Tied Up, Folks

49-49 among likelies, a small 49-47 Bush edge among registered.

And the effects of the debate aren't over yet. This movement is coming earlier and stronger than most pundits, including myself, expected.

I've already said it, but, again, before this thing is over, I'm going to have a heart attack.

Before anyone goes all to pieces, though, bear in mind that Bush's lead was just as ephemeral and soft as Kerry's momentum is at the moment. I think Kerry did himself some real good -- good that won't dissipate, and increased support that will remain permanent -- but that's only a fraction of the current shift of support.

Bush was up, then Kerry, then Bush, now Kerry (sort of). Voter sentiment does seem to be pretty volatile, and votes seem to swing according to whoever's getting the best press of the week. The winner might just be the man who has the last good news before the election.

Or the man who makes the next-to-last-mistake.

The most important effect of Kerry's bounce is on bloggers. Josh Marshall is going to be whistling Zippitty-doo-dah out of his ass, while a lot of conservatives are going to go into a bitter funk for a couple of weeks.

Not me, though.

I'm the blogger with an optimistic vision for the election.


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posted by Ace at 09:03 PM

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