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October 03, 2004

He Scored a Football

Greg sent that by.

This is Ace, by the way. I'm just posting to try to dispell some of the stench of defeatism Hoke just farted all over my site.

I wanted to mention that he tends to be a little pessimistic.

But great job, Hoke. Thanks for subbing. And feel free to continue posting throughout the day.

Update: Sometimes a little pessimism is warranted, of course-- Newsweek shows Kerry back out ahead.

Ahem. I didn't really want to overstate it too much, but I feared that. Kerry was at his best in that debate and Bush was at his near-worst.

Another Update: Okay, there is once again the now-obligatory debate over the partisan divisions in Newsweek's sample, but now from the right.

As has been hashed out here and other places before: Partisan ID does in fact vary. When people like the Democrats more, they're more inclined to call themselves Democrats. When people like Republicans more, they're more inclined to call themselves Republicans. So you just can't freeze partisan ID at certain levels and say that's an accurate reflection of the electorate.

All the "new Republicans" previous polls found were very soft "Republicans," people who'd been inspired to call themselves Republicans because of a variety of events (SwiftVets, convention, John Kerry's inability to say anything at all). The "new Democrats" in this poll are equally soft, and can at any time drop that newly-announced affiliation like a bad habit (which, of course, it is).

I don't know how accurate Newsweek is generally-- I always think it skews in favor of Democrats -- but, assuming its results are confirmed by other polls, I think we have to accpet that there has in fact been a shift in voter sentiment. That sentiment can shift back, but the days of an easy Bush landslide are now history.

At least for the moment.


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posted by Ace at 01:23 PM

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