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June 30, 2004

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs... "Nearly a Million Jobs in 100 Days"

Consensus estimate: 250,000 in June, slightly beating May's 248,000.

There's the possibility of upward re-adjustments of previous months, which is something we've seen again and again during this boom. And of course we could get another pleasant surprise, and see even more jobs than this created.

But I actually think that the period of positive surprises is passing us; I think that economists have adjusted their thinking, and that therefore the estimates won't necessarily be lower than the real numbers anymore. We'll start seeing estimates that are high about half of the time and low about half of the time.

On to the cowbell:

WASHINGTON, June 30 (Reuters) - U.S. employment likely surged again in June, taking gains this year to some 1.4 million jobs and bolstering President George W. Bush's economic record ahead of the November election, analysts said onWednesday.

Economists believe 250,000 jobs were created this month, virtually matching May's jump of 248,000, though the unemployment rate probably will not budge from 5.6 percent because newly hopeful job-seekers are returning to the job market.

"I think the gains will be quite widespread again, and as we saw in April and May, we are likely to create slightly more higher-paying than lower-paying positions," said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Banc of America Securities.

Even if the unemployment rate does not decline, analysts expect the Labor Department's closely watched payrolls report, due on Friday, to confirm broad strength in what months ago was still only a tepid economic recovery.

The creation of nearly a million jobs in the last three months ended years of worry about the slow recovery from the 2001 recession and cemented expectations the Federal Reserve will begin raising interest rates to head off inflation.

While 1.2 million jobs have been lost since Bush took office, that deficit could easily be erased if hiring continues at its recent pace, and talk of Bush being the president with the worst job record since Herbert Hoover has faded.

And how! As others have pointed out, we knew the economy was booming when the liberal media stopped asking Bush about it.

For three years they wanted to talk about nothing but the economy. Veritable economic Chatty Kathy dolls, they were.

And then, suddenly-- thin-lipped silence. No more talk of "the Bush economy."

There's your leading economic indicator, right there.

"The economy has turned very sharply in Bush's direction, so his biggest weakness is becoming a strength," said Cary Leahey, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities.

The shift in political rhetoric from the "jobless recovery" lament of the Democrats to "nearly a million jobs in 100 days" of the Bush administration appears to have reached consumers, whose confidence levels hit the highest level in two years in June, according to a Conference Board report this week.

Finally.

And yet no credit to Ace of Spades HQ.

Screwed again. I blame Instapundit for this slight.

...

Longer hours and fatter paychecks are seen by experts as evidence the economy is on the threshold of even stronger job gains in the months ahead.

Even stronger job gains in the "months ahead," which, I'm sure you all realize, are also the "months ahead" of the November election.

Three words:

Cow. Frickin'. Bell.


digg this
posted by Ace at 03:13 PM

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