Sponsored Content




Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support


Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!



Recent Entries
Absent Friends
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups





















Shock: Maureen Dowd Analogizes Life-and-Death Real World Events to a Cheesey Hollywood Entertainment | Main | Flashback: When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
May 15, 2004

43 @ 42%

There isn't any spinning this.

It's a bad number, and a number Bush can't win with. Bush managed to retain his relatively-decent popularity throughout these past two bad liberal-media-feeding-frenzy months, but it seems that this Abu Ghraib nothing was the straw that broke the camel's back.

Will the number change? We think so. There is great economic news out there that is still not known by the public generally; the improving economy is not yet baked into the cake, as stockbrokers say. Bush's economic stock is currently at submarket prices; it'll go up.

And we think that Iraq is about to become much more stable. The Sadrists seem to be on their last legs, for example.

Still. There are only five months of the campaign left. Bush has time to improve, but not much time.

Panic? Us? Hey, we're not panicking. But the facts are the facts. Presidents get re-elected with job approval ratings in the low fifties. They may or may not get re-elected with job approval ratings in the high forties. They have a difficult time getting re-elected with numbers in the mid-forites. And they lose with numbers in the low forties, or worse.

The election, of course, is not being held today. But if it were -- and if normal rules hold in this election -- Bush would lose.

James Taranto recently published a series of emails pointing out that someone could be disatisfied with Bush's performance and yet still vote for him. This is undeniably true; however, it was also undeniably true during Bush I's re-election campaign as well. It may be true that some are disatisfied with Bush and yet will still vote for him, but that is the case with all Presidents seeking re-election.

Presidents with low job-approval numbers lose their bid for re-election. That's the general rule. To prove that this rule doesn't hold in the case of Bush II, one needs to prove more than the fact that some will vote for Bush despite being unsatisfied with his performance. One would need to prove that this supporting-him-while-being-disatisfied effect is more pronounced now than it has been in previous elections; that the number of people who will still vote for Bush II despite their reservations is greater than it normally is in any election season.

That might be the case. This is probably going to be a strange election in a number of ways. But a few anecdotal emails certainly don't prove that's the case.

A lot of Republicans were disatisfied with Bush I in 1992. And he lost.

There are a lot of reasons to think that Bush's job approval will rise. After all, he's still being clobbered as to his economic performance, and that, strangely enough, is a good thing. Were people satisfied with his economic performance, and yet still disatisfied with him as President, he'd have no room to rise as the economy improves. The economy is improving, and dramatically, but the public still doesn't seem to appreciate that fact, or credit Bush for that.

As they do begin to appreciate it, Bush's greatest nagging problem could turn into his greatest strength-- and that would obviously have a great impact on his support from the public.

Let's just hope the media isn't able to keep the explosive jobs-creation numbers a state secret through November.


digg this
posted by Ace at 07:19 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
redridinghood: "Today is The Feast Day of St. Francis of Assisi.&# ..."

Huck Follywood: "More like a billion . Posted by: rhennigantx at O ..."

Village Idiot's Apprentice: "I would not even call the lack of loyalty by our P ..."

Bulgaroctonus : "Mornin’, All. ..."

[/i][/b][/s][/u]I used to have a different nic: "[i]During the debate on the resolution to remove M ..."

J.J. Sefton: " 55 Posted by: torabora at October 04, 2023 08:01 ..."

Defenestratus: "I'm a realist. I understand that my political bel ..."

Ordinary American: "Every time an unabashed fighter emerges on the Rig ..."

Spoiler Alert: "[i] The entire GOPe structure is a flimsy mirage o ..."

Ex GOP: "So much goodness in this morning's rant! Excellent ..."

Joe Mannix (Not a cop!): "$33 Trillion in debt! The dollar is losing value. ..."

Lady in Black[/i][/b][/u]: "Mark Levin has lost his mind dishing on Gaetz. ..."

Recent Entries
Search


Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64