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May 10, 2004

A Wonderful, Funderful Poll That Can't Possibly Be Right

Thanks to Free Republic, which links Real Clear Politics (a site we can't access at the moment), we're directed towards amazing Survey USA poll which shows John Kerry ahead of George Bush...

...by a single percentage point, 46%-45%.

Talk amongst yourselves.

Now look, we just don't believe this, and we will continue not believing this until other polls confirm it, and over a longer period of time.

But just because we don't believe it doesn't mean we can't gloat about it. The liberals almost certainly were not so stupid as to believe we were really in a "quagmire" during that April sandstorm right before the fall of Baghdad, but they sure did gloat about those 24 hours of blissful, rapturous American military defeat.

And so, based on George Bush being behind by just one percentage point (obviously well within the MoE), we've just got to have

Did Someone Ask for More Cowbell? Coolness. We were going to excerpt from this article we read in the New York Sun, available on but it turns out it's on NRO as well.

Couple of fun facts:

For months, economists have been predicting that solid growth in the gross domestic product would translate to a comfortable victory for Bush on Election Day. The economy has now averaged 5 percent real growth over the past year. Experience shows that this is well more than enough to ensure victory for the incumbent party in the presidential election.

With the April 29 announcement that the economy grew 4.2 percent in the first quarter, Yale University economist Ray Fair raised his prediction of President Bush’s share of the two-party vote in November from 58.7 percent to 60.4 percent. Either figure would constitute a blowout victory.

[We already linked that, on Friday.]

Other economists are not quite so optimistic, but nevertheless show Bush with a large and growing lead. In an April report, Global Insight, the giant economic forecasting company, has him winning 55.8 percent of the two-party vote this year.

Economist Robert Dye of Economy.com, looked at economic growth in individual states in an April 21 report and did an electoral analysis on a state-by-state basis. Overall, he sees Bush with 54 percent of the vote and carrying every state except California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Rhode Island. This translates into an Electoral College victory for Bush of 373 votes to 165 for John Kerry.

All of this depends on the non-occurrence of a major terrorist event, however.


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posted by Ace at 04:34 PM

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