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May 07, 2004

Yale Economic Presidential-Prediction Model: Bush with 58%

And that's just in a two-candidate race!

The model is based on economic readings as well as determinations as to which quarters before an election are "good quarters." One quarter is almost a good quarter, just missing the cut-off, and hence is not counted as "good news." But the economist says it's on the line, and he could easily characterize it either way.

And if he were to make a more generous judgment call, Bush would take 60% of the vote in a two-candidate race.

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posted by Ace at 04:53 PM

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