Trump and the GOP Look to Gain More Seats in the Midterms Through Redistricting

In Texas, they're about to vote on a plan that should, in theory, if everything works out, give the GOP five additional House seats.

They're doing this by "unpacking" red voters from red districts and moving some of the red voters into blue districts, in hopes that the new red voters can flip those districts.

There's always a danger to doing this: by making the red districts less red and more blue, you create the possibility that you'll lose red seats if there's a blue wave. When you spread out your voters into more districts, you have a better chance to gain more territory, but you also increase the risks that the enemy can seize your more-lightly defended bastions, too.

But the Democrats are so toxic and chaotic right now that it seems like a good time to make this bet.

The Democrats are crying, can you even get this, racism.

Texas Democrats in Congress sharply criticized President Donald Trump's plan to redraw their state's political map in the middle of the decade, labeling it a threat to democracy -- and warning their GOP counterparts that an aggressive gerrymander could come back to haunt them.

The Republican-controlled Texas Legislature is poised to consider a new set of congressional maps during a special session that kicks off next week. With their party locked out of power in Austin, Democrats from the state's congressional delegation said they expect the new districts to continue Texas' history of violating the federal Voting Rights Act by diluting the votes of racial minorities.

"The scheme of the Republicans has consistently been to make sure that they mute our voices so that they can go ahead and have an oversized say in this," Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Dallas, said at a news conference with House Democratic leadership and most Texas Democrats. "So I fully anticipate that's exactly where they're going with this map."

They're always boohoo whinin' and cryin', as Black Conservative Perspective accurately reports.

...

Earlier Tuesday, Trump told Texas congressional Republicans that his political team is pursuing a map that would yield five new Republican seats, according to three people briefed on the call, which was first reported by Punchbowl News.

At the White House, Trump later told reporters that Republicans could get three to five more seats out of a new Texas map -- and that other states could follow.

"Texas would be the biggest one," he said. "Just a very simple redrawing, we pick up five seats."

...

Democrats have very few tools at their disposal

Don't be modest, they have plenty of tools.

to stop or even mitigate the redistricting. Both chambers of the Legislature are under Republican control and overseen by leaders who are unlikely to stand in Trump's way.

This leaves Democrats fearful they could lose their jobs without a clearly defined offensive playbook. Their limited options to hit back include convincing blue states to redistrict in favor of Democrats to offset GOP gains in Texas, a move they hope would dissuade Republicans from going ahead with the plan.

The Florida State Supreme Court just upheld Ron DeSantis's 2022 redistricting plan for that state, keeping the 20-8 GOP advantage. This doesn't add any potential pick-ups for the GOP, but it does end the Democrats' bid to undo the map.

How do the midterms look?

They're obviously a long way off.

That said, the GOP is well-poised to gain seats. The Cook Political Report -- biased to the left -- analyses the seats that are potential or likely pick-ups for either party, and finds that the GOP has a +12 net advantage in possible pick-ups in the 70 races expected to be competitive. That is, of the competitive races, there are 12 more incumbent Democrats in potential danger than Republicans. I think this means that 41 Democrat seats are in play, vs. only 29 Republican seats. (Corrected.)

That sounds so boring. Let's see how CNN's Highly Excitable Harry Enten reports the news. You've already seen the first thing he talks about, that Republicans are only behind by 2 points on the congressional ballot according to CNN's Democrat-skewed polling. In the second half, he compares how many competitive seats each party had in prior Republican mid-terms. Democrats had a plus seven advantage in 2005, and wound up picking up seats. They had a plus thirty three advantage in 2017, and wound up flipping the House from red to blue.

And now? Republicans up 12.

Bird Hands alert: Hysterical Democrat racists Tiffany Cross and Ana Navarro are sharpening the beaks of their bird hands. They're outraged that you might beat them again.

posted by Ace at 03:44 PM

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