The Torricelli Option Is On the Table: Leftwing Bloomberg Begins Polling Trump v. Kamala Harris, Anticipating a Biden Departure

Hilarious.

Obviously, Trump thumps Kumala.

But why even ask? What are they hearing?

One number I don't like is the tie in Nevada (between Trump and Biden, not Kumala). They're tied at 47%-- but then Trump goes out to a five point lead when RFKJr. and "others" are included. Trump is definitely losing some of his blue-collar white former-Democrat voters to RFKJr.

MXMNews:

Former President Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in key battleground states, according to the latest Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll. Voters overwhelmingly trust Trump to handle the economy and immigration over Biden.

Key Details:

Trump leads Biden in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.

Top voter issues: economy (35%) and immigration (14%).

Voters trust Trump more on the economy (50% vs. 37%) and immigration (51% vs. 34%).

Reminder:

I don't expect that publicizing this will win back Trump-to-RFKJr. voters, because they're Democrats and probably don't like the Tea Party.

Jim Geraghty considers Biden's line that #ThePollsAreSkewed and wonders: But if they're not skewed...?

Biden's up by a percentage point in Michigan, 46 percent to 45 percent. Perhaps the best news for the president is that this survey shows a tie in Nevada, where previous polling has had Trump ahead, sometimes by a wide margin.

But at the very end of the article, it reads, "The statistical margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point across the seven states; 3 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania; 4 percentage points in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, and 5 percentage points in Nevada."

Ah. So they barely called any Nevada voters, and the MOE Is large.

He recaps the Biden spin that the polls are skewed, and the claim that there's a Secret Surge for Scranton Joe that the media are hiding.

Does that sound right to you? That the press doesn't want to write about a Democratic incumbent having momentum against Donald Trump?

Now, both nationally and in swing states, there are a lot of pollsters in business. Indisputably, some are better than others. And you can definitely find outliers that have Biden in better shape here and there.

But every pollster has Biden's job-approval rating in lousy shape. This morning, the new national Reuters-Ipsos poll "showed just 36 percent of Americans approve of Biden's job performance as president, down from 38 percent in April. It was a return to the lowest approval rating of his presidency, last seen in July 2022."

If only a bit more than a third of Americans think Biden is doing a good job, would you expect him to have a lot of momentum in the presidential race? Yes, Trump is a deeply flawed candidate, but he's also the most likely alternative.

Ezra Klein is among those on the left side of the aisle trying to sound the alarm for the Biden campaign: "To the extent polls have been wrong in recent presidential elections, they've been wrong because they've been biased toward Democrats. Trump ran stronger in 2016 and 2020 than polls predicted."

Is Biden campaigning like a guy who's well ahead? Maybe Biden's latest round of race demagoguery is standard-issue for the man who told African Americans that Mitt Romney was going to put them back in chains. Does cutting off aid to Israel seem like the kind of move you make when everything's going well? Does the administration's obsession with forgiving student-loan debt suggest confidence in the likely turnout among young voters?

I know that poll posts are as disliked as Disney posts. I'll post another one more quickly than usual.

posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 02:25 PM

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