Sunday Morning Book Thread 06-20-2021 | Main | First-World Problems...Lockness Monster And Customer Service Edition
June 20, 2021

A Coming Coup In China? Not So Fast...

tankman33.jpg

Most of us remember the fall of the Soviet Union, which was predicted by exactly nobody in our intelligence institutions, many of whom were predicting exactly the opposite. Of course the conditions for its fall were created by a B list actor, an electrician in the Lenin Shipyard in Gdańsk, and a Polish priest in Rome. They were helped by a few basic laws of economics and human nature, and the hubris of the vast Soviet bureaucracy, led by the Politburo and the Central Committee.

And to the East was a large and even more backwards country that instituted many of the same draconian economic and social strictures on its people. They had their own trouble with immutable laws of economics and the desire of many people to be free -- The Tiananmen Square Massacre was the culmination of months of protests, driven by students but seemingly embraced by many others. But the neo-Mandarins had been looking both east and west, and had begun a program of economic liberalization that they hoped would placate the people and improve the dim prospects of a communist economy. So they put down the revolt with tanks while continuing to loosen their hold on the economy.

Fast forward 30 years and they had created a huge economic engine driven by easy credit and the insatiable desire of the Western world for China's inexpensive (and cheap) consumer goods. How? By seeing the flaws of a pure socialist command economy and loosening the restrictions on private enterprise.

And it worked. But how to keep control of a populace that has a taste of relative prosperity and can see what freedom looks like just a few miles off China's coasts? Were they unwittingly prepping the battlespace for another protest like 1989's? One led not from the universities but from the highest ranks of the communist party and the army?

Roger Garside: A Coming Coup Will End China's Communist Dictatorship

They can see the problems, the deep-seated, long-standing problems in China, caused by the system of totalitarian dictatorship, which they have. They understand those problems better than the people in the outside world do.

They can see better than most people can see, that this regime is outwardly strong, but inwardly weak. And that it’s in a state of political decay. And that their best hope for preserving their own wealth and power, as well as the best hope for China, is to lead a coup d’etat to remove Xi Jinping and to launch China into a democratic transition.


Wouldn't it be pretty to think so?

But it is not to be. The rulers of China have embraced several things that will effectively minimize the possibility of any coup attempt, no matter its origins, from being successful.

First and most powerful is Western internet technology that gives them access, and the ability to observe, every form of communication. The police State is alive and well and living in every Chinese smart phone and every computer.

Garside addresses the issue, and his response is a forlorn hope that someday...

We have to find a way of breaking through the extremely efficient system of censorship. Because I believe that when the Chinese people know the truth, they will be outraged to learn the lies they have been fed, generation after generation and the tragedies which have been covered up generation after generation.
That is a noble thought, but the Chinese surveillance state is comprehensive. The gift of Western technology destroyed the advantage that any nascent rebels and revolutionaries might have. Now the Police State can be proactive rather than reactive, so scenes like Tank Man in Tiananmen Squire will no longer be possible.

Second is the example of the Soviet Union. They have a playbook for how to fail, and they have read it, and are acting accordingly. They loosened economic controls to unleash the pent-up desire for a better life, and while they re-tighten those controls now and again, it is a powerful tool to shift the gaze of the Chinese people from Western wealth to Chinese growth and future wealth.

And the third is traditional Chinese nationalism. They may dislike their rulers in Peking, but those rulers are demonizing the West and making them the new enemies of the Chinese people.

We all want to believe that in the natural state of humanity is the desire to to be free, to manage our affairs without interference. And in many people that is the case, but not in all, or in nearly the numbers required to combat China's comprehensive internal security and its demonstrated comfort with ruthless crackdowns on any who seem to be pushing back against its power.


digg this
posted by CBD at 12:00 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
trev006: "bring in Kamala on a wartime footing, and really g ..."

BunkerintheBurbs: "so close. I didn't know this bint was also one o ..."

Sponge - Saying Ashli Babbitt: "[i]@Breaking911 2m Pres. Biden compares Jan. 6 ..."

Liar: "Ribs mostly be done. Hickory. I lie, consider it b ..."

Colorado Alex in Exile: "or Nov 3rd scared the shit out of them (Trump gett ..."

496: "Security for me, but not for thee. Who the hell ..."

Warai-otoko: "Posted by: Tami at August 05, 2021 04:28 PM (cF8AT ..."

Romeo13: "So, she is advocating us Protecting ourselves? ..."

Tami [/i] [/b] [/s] [/u]: "@JonSchweppe Lol, @KristiNoem held a fundraiser ..."

BunkerintheBurbs: "Foist? ..."

President Select Decaf: "We have no one except ourselves. -------------- ..."

trev006: "I say this not to get them off the hook or anythin ..."

Recent Entries
Search


Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64