Support
Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!
Contact
Top Headlines
Muldoon: A Last Limerick
Mitt Romney, who is America's number one geopolitical foe, claims Turkey is a "small country"
Kyle Sheideler responds that he is anti-Turkey and doesn't wish them to be a part of NATO, but Mitt Romney should stick to giving gay kids haircut rapes, because Turkey has the second largest army in all of NATO, after only the US. If that's "small," what would "big" be?
When I was in Beirut, I was surprised to learn that Arabs felt insecure because there was not a single Arab great power capable of doing much more than defend its own borders (if even that). No Arab powers-- not even in the Middle East? No, I was told by a professor. There are three great powers in the Middle East, but not a single one of them is Arab. One is Israel -- obviously not Arab. One is Iran. They're Persians. And one is Turkey, who are not Arabs but Turks.
Anyway, it's strange to hear Mitt Romney, America's Number One Geopolitical Foe, get something so absurdly wrong as to call Turkey, one of the three Great Powers of the Middle East, a "small country" that we don't need to pay no mind to.
Quick funny story from Tim Pool, explaining why social media "fact-checking" is trash -- it's because they rely on trash outlets, like CNN and MSNBC (and the SPLC and Snopes!), to decide what is true and what is not true, despite CNN and MSNBC being absurdly biased and wrong more often than right.
The quick story he tells (about a minute long) is about Wikipedia's insistence that he himself "invented a zeppelin" -- something some trash outlet made up. It's not derogatory -- who wouldn't want to be credited as a zeppelin inventor? -- but it's completely false and without even a some distorted factual basis.
But no matter how many times Pool tells them "I never invented any zeppelin, you should delete that," they keep the false zeppelin-inventing biographical point, because Tim Pool is not considered a "credible source" on Tim Pool's zeppelin-inventing career or lack of same.
HuffPo says you invented a zeppelin, and who are you compared to the warriors of truth we know as HuffPo?
PBS "News" Hour "journalist" is very, very angry that Trump... posted a respectful remembrance of Elijah Cummings?
Psst, little open secret: It's the Paul Ryan types who keep PBS and NPR funded. Everything for the Suburban Wine Moms.
Video about your eyes' and brain's own color-correction function -- in other words, explaining the "What Color Is This Dress?" controversy
Even if you remember the gist of the explanation about the blue-black or white-gold dress, this video is still sort of illuminating (pun intended)
They gimmicked up another case of colors looking different to different people. This video can help you see something in ambiguous lighting in two different ways.
By the way, it worked for me.
SJW Fascist: Let's ban children's Stormtrooper costumes Because Nazi and Because Trump
This is inspired by Ivanka Trump's son wearing the costume. Now it's #problematic and must be #cancelled.
Tim Pool: YouTube is suppressing all videos which mention James O'Keefe's sting videos, imposing Chinese-style speech restrictions to make James O'Keefe officially Unmentionable and erased from all public discussion
All hail our Social Media Monopoloy Overlords. Who just happen to be working to protect Legacy Media Overlords.
Tim Pool also notes in this video that Twitter is refusing to give primary challengers a Blue Check, which the incumbents already have, delivering a huge advantage to incumbents and a big disadvantage to challengers.
Cvckshed Query: My girlfriend is going to meet her favorite niche-band rock-singer from the 90s, and then she's going to fvck him until she sees crooked and can't walk right. Am I being a dick for being upset about this?
Hmm, the letter is signed "Definitely not JG [insert Simpsons reference]."
I wonder what that cryptic hint could mean. oh well I guess we'll never know.
Vid: "Hysterical" and emotional child Greta Thunberg needs to grow up some
Someone else made this point: Greta Thunberg is a sixteen year old girl. Yet her parents insist on dressing her as if she's 8. Including the little-girl braids. Is this part of the stagecraft?
The CW's heavily-promoted Batwoman -- a character blurbed by the network as "armed with a passion for social justice and a flair for speaking her mind" -- plummets in second week ratings, becoming the CW's lowest-viewed superhero show
Supergirl, which I also hear is a #WokeFest, also tanked in ratings.
I'm going to guess all of these shows are slipping in ratings. They're just not good. Update: Yup. The Flash show dropped in ratings too.
Let's check the difference between #Woke internet reviewers and the audience at Rotten Tomatoes: 69% positive for Batwoman from #Woke Mary Sue types, 12% from the audience.
Julie Kelly discusses the impotency of the NeverTrumpers with Seb Gorka
"Three men and a fax machine" she says of Messrs. Hayes, Goldberg, and French
Of course: Fake News ABC shows Turkish propaganda video, supposedly of Turkish forces advancing, but really of live fire at a Western gun range; ABC News refuses to issue on-air correction
Yes, they distinguish between "over the airwaves" -- which is what makes them a broadcasting operation, of course, and nothing little tweet corrections on the internet, which means nothing. This is what the Twitter Addict Jake Tapper Fanbois don't get -- sure, Jake Tapper will retweet a single post about some issue that hurts the Democrat party or his precious progressive/socialist movement. But these stories rarely make it to his actual show, the thing that counts in his mind, and counts in most people's minds, really, as the "real news," as opposed to some blow-off bullshit on Twitter.
Yet Jake Tapper's Twitter Fanbois are proud of themselves for lobbying Jakey to retweet something. They're very cheat dates -- 2 am bootycalls, really -- who won't insist on a proper date. You know, out in public. Meaning, on the air.
Opinion: The media desperately campaigned for Joker to fail -- and even tried to provoke a theater shooting to discredit Joker -- because the film is largely about the failure and evil of the media
That part of the analysis starts at 7:05. It should be cued up to that part.
I don't want to spoil it for anyone, but without getting into specifics, let's just say the media is as usual very, very concerned that something might provoke violence against the media specifically -- while being blithely unconcerned, or even downright enthusiastic, about provoking violence against those outside the Media Guild.
Oh, by the way, as the media's Plan A of stirring up a theater shooting didn't work out, they're going to their Plan B -- accusing the film of being about a White Man. Which, yes, is now apparently a crime.
Monday Morning Funny: Captain MAGA [dri]
Recent Entries
ONT: Keepin' The Disgust Fresh Edition
Couple Says Russian "Child" They Adopted Is Actually an Adult Woman And Psychopathic Con Artist Who Has Tried to Kill the Wife Twice Already
Twitter Announces That It Will Begin Partially Deplatforming Donald Trump's Tweets
Surprise! Adam Schiff Staffer Met With "Impeachment Witness"
Healthy 23-Year-Old Woman Trying to Expand Belgium's Already-Loose Euthanasia Laws, Saying She Should Be Allowed to Die Because She Just Can't Even
The Soyciety Pages, Issue One
Brexit Deal Reached, But Questions About Whether Parliament Will Pass It
Governor Andrew Cuomo Uses the Full N-Word, Hard R, In Radio Interview
Megyn Kelly Returns to Fox, as a Guest on Tucker;
Talks NBC's Sexual Assault Problem

The Morning Rant: Minimalist Edition
Recent Comments
Sigmund Freud: "I read that as: *Pants Fag* Posted by: garr ..." [view]

mikeyG [/i]: "MOLON LABE ..." [view]

Ace's liver: "[i]Women who had an abortion were 34 percent more ..." [view]

Slapweasel, [b]H.M.F.I.C.[/b], Slapweasel Industries: ""[i]WTG Slap!! You're the master![/i]" -Posted by ..." [view]

IrishEi: "I want PDT to win in an epic landslide just to stu ..." [view]

...: "Women who had an abortion were 34 percent more lik ..." [view]

JROD: "The whole who is the best president thing is like ..." [view]

garrett: ">>*Plants Flag* I read that as: *Pants Fa ..." [view]

ALH: "6 Turdus Noctus, ALH? Posted by: Duncanthrax at O ..." [view]

JuJuBee, just generally being shamey: "Another schlonging https://tinyurl.com/yxhrazaj ..." [view]

FireHorse: "*long exhale* That was a really decent ONT -- w ..." [view]

filbert: "ONT is up. ..." [view]

filbert: "Did not read the content. ..." [view]

LeftCoast Dawg: " The gap between the reality-based conservative ..." [view]

redbanzai the Southerner: "Coolidge is my favorite Prez... but I would have t ..." [view]

Search


Bloggers in Arms

Talk Of The Town with Steve Noxon
American Digest
The Anchoress
Belmont Club
Betsy's Page
The Bitch Girls
BizzyBlog
Blackfive, Paratrooper of Love
Blonde Sagacity
California Conservative
Chicago Boyz
Classical Values
Cold Fury
The Country Store
Cowboy Blob
Cranky Neocon
Da Goddess
Daily Lunch
Daily Pundit
The Daily Recycler (Vidblog)*
Daleks Weblog
Daly Thoughts
Ilyka Damen
Damn the Man
Dave Munger
Dave's Not Here
Dawn Eden
Day by Day (Cartoon)
DefenseTech
Demure Thoughts
EduWonk
Enter Stage Right
Eternity Road
Dean Esmay
The Fat Guy
File It Under
FloridaCracker
Ghost of a Flea
Grim's Hall
Hell in a Handbasket
Victor Davis Hanson
Hugh Hewitt
The House of Payne
IMAO
Instapundit
Iowahawk
JamieR (Classics)
JihadWatch
Just One Minute
Kausfiles
Le Sabot Post-Moderne
Lileks/The Bleat
Likelihood of Confusion Law Blog
Michelle Malkin
Memeorandum (Metablog) Mind of Mog
My Pet Jawa
Oh, That Liberal Media
Outside the Beltway
Patterico's Pontifications
The Perfect World (Discussion Forum)
The People's Cube
New Hampshire Review
Powerline
Protein Wisdom
The Pundit Guy
Q & O
RedState
Reliapundit
Riehl Worldview (Carnivorous Conservative)
Say Anything Blog
Scrappleface
Seraphic Press
Roger L. Simon
Six Meat Buffet
Slublog
Ten Fingers Six Strings
Traction Control/US Citizen
Two Crackas in My Soup
Twisted Spinster
An Unamplified Voice (Music/Opera)
Velociworld
Viking Pundit
The Wardrobe Door
White Pebble (Politics/Poetry)
Whitney Gaskell (Author)
Michael Williams/Master of None
WizBang
Faces From Ace's
The Rogues' Gallery.
Archives
Syndicate this site (XML)

Powered by
Movable Type 2.64

Commander at Abu Ghraib Accused of Photographing Naked American Female Soldiers | Main | Jobless Claims Lowest Since 2000; Plunge to 315,000
May 06, 2004

Where are the Jobs?

A little bit ago, a commenter asked where the jobs are. Every other indicator is blinking like a Christmas tree on crack, but where are the jobs?

Well, in March, we had a big, big pickup of 308,000 net new jobs. But even before that, jobs were being created, albeit at a lackluster pace.

759,000 jobs in seven months is not an especially robust gain, but it is a gain nevertheless. And that 308,000 in March would seem to indicate a trend of quicker job-creation.


We'll know on Friday, when the Labor Department releases its estimate of April's job numbers. Today (Thursday) we'll probably see a spate of articles in which economists estimate Friday's number.

The expecatations game: Mort Kondracke is a pretty fair-minded and moderate guy -- he's a real political moderate, although the liberal press undoubtedly considers him a firebreathing right-winger -- but he's set the bar for success regarding job-creation at 300,000 per month, continuing in April.

Which seems silly to us; just a month ago 200,000 per month was considered vigorous job creation, and now, just because of one great month, Mort's bar for success has shot up by 50%. A little unreasonable, we think.

Some months will have a lot of growth; some months will produce a great many jobs. Some months will have little growth, or even a small retraction; some months will lose net jobs. This is the way it is during any period; it is often forgotten that Bill Clinton's "dream economy" featured numerous months of declining economic growth and declining jobs numbers. Of course, he had positive numbers on average, over time. Which is what counts.

You don't call a .341 hitter with 35 HR a "failure" because he goes a week without a scoring or batting in a run. You measure his performance not game-to-game, but averaged over the season.

Monthly numbers, in other words, are volatile.

Nevertheless, if Mort the Mild-Mannered Moderate Kondracke is now setting 300,000+ new jobs as the absolute minimum for a successful economic April, you can imagine how the actual liberals in the press are going to play Friday.

On the other hand, 241,000 new jobs -- which is actually a pretty decent number, given the burst of jobs in March -- would make it a cool million for the last eight months. Not stellar over an eight-month period, but hey, that's a million jobs created.

A million is a nice number. A million is the kind of number people recognize as "big."

What will the actual number be? We have no idea, but it seems to us that March's number was a spike of hiring, not something to be taken as the ongoing average. If a batter goes 9 for 12 over three games, you don't extrapolate that he's going to end the season with an average around .750.

100-150,000 jobs in April would mean we've averaged 150-175,000 jobs over a four-month span, which is fair job growth -- and the sort of growth considered decent, if not stellar, a mere month ago.

200,000 jobs would mean an average of nearly 200,000 jobs over four months; this is healthy job growth, maybe even very healthy, especially when you consider that the two month average would be 250,000, a half-million in 60 days.

250,000-300,000 would indicate an undeniable economic boom in all sectors, including hiring.

And more than that? Well, let's not get silly here. Businesses are very skittish about taking on costly new liabilities like workers when the nation is one major terrorist event away from going back into a slowdown. But if we get more than 300,000 jobs -- two 300,000 plus months back-to-back -- then we might as well cancel the November elections and install Bush as El Jefe Maximo Por La Viva, as Paul Krugman fears.

Well, no, let's not do that. We are firmly on the record against installing a banana-republic fascist militocracy in America, even if we think it would be awfully fun to see the look on the Diminutive Dean's face. But 600,000+ jobs in a two months is heck-a-slammin', as Prince so eloquently put it in You Got the Look, and even the supremely objective media will have a little difficulty keeping a straight face as they report, "This just in: We're all doomed. Doomed."

We figure the number will be 125-150,000. Indicating a strong economy with the normal sort of job-creation during an expansion. Not a huge number for a single month, but then, hiring needs to catch its breath again after the March hiccup. Another spike might come in May or June.

We think we'll be very well satisfied with anything like 200,00 jobs. That would produce a two-month average of 250,000 jobs, which is "solid job growth." We have it on good authority that 236,000 jobs per month during an expansion consitutes such solid job growth:

For perspective, it helps to remember what solid job growth looks like. During Bill Clinton's eight years in office, the economy added 236,000 jobs per month. But that's just an average: a graph of monthly changes looks like an electrocardiogram.

Actually, we have it on good authority that just 200,000 jobs per month would be "serious job growth," as defined here:

unless we start to see serious job growth — by which I mean increases in payroll employment of more than 200,000 a month — consumer spending will eventually slide, and bring growth down with it.

Says who? Says Clinton-loving Princeton Pixie Paul Krugman, that's sez who.

Now, that was Clinton's average over eight full years, but then, he began with a growing economy and didn't put the economy into recession until Bush's term.

If the Bush Boom manages to match the good professor's previously-defined bars for "serious" and "solid" growth creation, we have this crazy idea that Krugman will paint it as "disappointing" or even "disastrous" news.

No word, yet, on when the Democrats will begin revising their "2.3 million jobs lost" rhetoric. In fact, the last time we'd heard, they'd actually upped it to 2.6 million, despite the fact that we've been gaining jobs, not losing them, for seven months.

At some point our supremely objective press corps will, no doubt, begin to correct them.

But Aren't We Now Spinning Expectations, Downwards? Yeah, there's some of that going on here. But the media is ready to define 308,000 jobs in a month as the floor for basic, ordinary success, when it clearly is not. 308,000 jobs in a month is a smashing success, something Paul Krugman spins as "nothing special," and yet Bill Clinton only managed this "nothing special" little trick 21% of the time during his "miracle economy."

It would seem rather unfair to demand Bush achieve with 100% consistency what Bill Clinton managed just over one time out of five. We know the media has different standards for Democrats, but even they must comprehend that their ability to impose differing standards is somewhat limited when simple, irrefutable math is involved.

With the threat of terrorism still very real, it's harder to get businesses to commit to hiring than it is to get to second base with an Up With People! background dancer.

And Bush's poll numbers sort-of indicate that there probably isn't yet mad-hiring going on. The public doesn't need the media to tell it the economy is dramatically improving (although it helps; and we can't count of them eagerly putting out the message as they did for Bill Clinton in 1996). If a lot of people are being hired, one would think that Bush's poll numbers, especially on the economy and right track/wrong track, would be trending up. They're not.

On the plus side, the surging tax revenues might actually indicate some real jobs-growth. Or it might just indicate that a lot of highly-paid people are suddenly being paid a lot more and are getting massively caught by the Alternate Minimum Tax.

posted by Ace at 07:07 AM