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Liberal atheist AllahPundit just can't stop attacking Christians
It's "racist" to attack any group you don't belong to, but the liberal atheist AllahPundit attacks conservative Christians, accusing them of Godcrime, four or five times per week
It's also cool that he's quoting Real TruCon Conservatives like MSNBC flunky Michael Steele, too
It's like AllahPundit is saying Christians aren't real Americans and should go back to their own countries, except he says it 5 days a week
The Washington Monument "For three nights, July 16, 17 and 18 -- the Smithsonian's National Air and Space Museum will project the rocket's image onto the east face of the monument." [CBD]
I'm avoiding the full pile on, because I understand this person is nice and personally loyal, but a Leading NeverTrumper and Fusion GPS conspiracy theory promoter just tweeted, about Stevens' death: Man, the confirmation hearings over John Paul Stevens' replacement is going to be pure fire!
This wouldn't be such a big deal except we keep being told by this crew that they're the Smart Ones who Really Understand Politics. In fact, they're almost all unaccomplished and a bit dim. They mistake "Famous among a tiny subculture addicted to Twitter" for actually famous. Or actually accomplished.
A friend cracks: "Maybe she got this wrong because she was reading from Fusion GPS' dossier on Stevens."
You know, people involved in writing and communications might want to consider that Twitter Is Not Their Friend. It encourages lazy writing and thoughtless #HotTakes. Why bother checking to see the last decade that Stevens worked as a justice when precious seconds for getting in your #EarlyHotTake are slipping away!
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Hint: it's King Creole and the Coconuts doing "My Male Curiosity"
Let's face it, you weren't going to get it anyway
Here's a topic: Can you think of bands that seemed to get a lot of promotion in movies and tv but didn't go anywhere? I seem to remember David Johannson (especially in his "Buster Poindexter" persona/act) getting a lot of tv/movie push and not being very good; Oingo Boingo too. (Danny Elfman eventually made it as a composer, but not as a rocknroll front man.)
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click
Somethin' in the moonlight catches my eye...
Baseball Cuck is, as usual, convinced he is smarter than everyone else in the world, despite continents of evidence to the contrary
The ability of the NeverTrump pseudo-intellectuals to maintain such passionate belief in their intellectual supremacy despite overwhelming evidence that they are wrong about literally everything is... how do I say it? ... rather Millennial in its delusional self-regard, no?
How do you spell "hamster," BaseballCuck?
An ocean of smug, a thimbleful of brains
Flashback: Glenn Reynolds on How David Brooks Gave Us Donald Trump
" It's clear that [Brooks would] like a social/political revolution that was more refined, better-mannered, more focused on the Constitution and, well, more bourgeois as opposed to in-your-face and working class.
The thing is, we had that movement. It was the Tea Party movement...
Yet the tea party movement was smeared as racist, denounced as fascist, harassed with impunity by the IRS and generally treated with contempt by the political establishment and by pundits like Brooks, who declared "I'm not a fan of this movement." After handing the GOP big legislative victories in 2010 and 2014, it was largely betrayed by the Republicans in Congress, who broke their promises to shrink government and block Obama's initiatives.
When politeness and orderliness are met with contempt and betrayal, do not be surprised if the response is something less polite, and less orderly.
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Commander at Abu Ghraib Accused of Photographing Naked American Female Soldiers | Main | Jobless Claims Lowest Since 2000; Plunge to 315,000
May 06, 2004

Where are the Jobs?

A little bit ago, a commenter asked where the jobs are. Every other indicator is blinking like a Christmas tree on crack, but where are the jobs?

Well, in March, we had a big, big pickup of 308,000 net new jobs. But even before that, jobs were being created, albeit at a lackluster pace.

759,000 jobs in seven months is not an especially robust gain, but it is a gain nevertheless. And that 308,000 in March would seem to indicate a trend of quicker job-creation.


We'll know on Friday, when the Labor Department releases its estimate of April's job numbers. Today (Thursday) we'll probably see a spate of articles in which economists estimate Friday's number.

The expecatations game: Mort Kondracke is a pretty fair-minded and moderate guy -- he's a real political moderate, although the liberal press undoubtedly considers him a firebreathing right-winger -- but he's set the bar for success regarding job-creation at 300,000 per month, continuing in April.

Which seems silly to us; just a month ago 200,000 per month was considered vigorous job creation, and now, just because of one great month, Mort's bar for success has shot up by 50%. A little unreasonable, we think.

Some months will have a lot of growth; some months will produce a great many jobs. Some months will have little growth, or even a small retraction; some months will lose net jobs. This is the way it is during any period; it is often forgotten that Bill Clinton's "dream economy" featured numerous months of declining economic growth and declining jobs numbers. Of course, he had positive numbers on average, over time. Which is what counts.

You don't call a .341 hitter with 35 HR a "failure" because he goes a week without a scoring or batting in a run. You measure his performance not game-to-game, but averaged over the season.

Monthly numbers, in other words, are volatile.

Nevertheless, if Mort the Mild-Mannered Moderate Kondracke is now setting 300,000+ new jobs as the absolute minimum for a successful economic April, you can imagine how the actual liberals in the press are going to play Friday.

On the other hand, 241,000 new jobs -- which is actually a pretty decent number, given the burst of jobs in March -- would make it a cool million for the last eight months. Not stellar over an eight-month period, but hey, that's a million jobs created.

A million is a nice number. A million is the kind of number people recognize as "big."

What will the actual number be? We have no idea, but it seems to us that March's number was a spike of hiring, not something to be taken as the ongoing average. If a batter goes 9 for 12 over three games, you don't extrapolate that he's going to end the season with an average around .750.

100-150,000 jobs in April would mean we've averaged 150-175,000 jobs over a four-month span, which is fair job growth -- and the sort of growth considered decent, if not stellar, a mere month ago.

200,000 jobs would mean an average of nearly 200,000 jobs over four months; this is healthy job growth, maybe even very healthy, especially when you consider that the two month average would be 250,000, a half-million in 60 days.

250,000-300,000 would indicate an undeniable economic boom in all sectors, including hiring.

And more than that? Well, let's not get silly here. Businesses are very skittish about taking on costly new liabilities like workers when the nation is one major terrorist event away from going back into a slowdown. But if we get more than 300,000 jobs -- two 300,000 plus months back-to-back -- then we might as well cancel the November elections and install Bush as El Jefe Maximo Por La Viva, as Paul Krugman fears.

Well, no, let's not do that. We are firmly on the record against installing a banana-republic fascist militocracy in America, even if we think it would be awfully fun to see the look on the Diminutive Dean's face. But 600,000+ jobs in a two months is heck-a-slammin', as Prince so eloquently put it in You Got the Look, and even the supremely objective media will have a little difficulty keeping a straight face as they report, "This just in: We're all doomed. Doomed."

We figure the number will be 125-150,000. Indicating a strong economy with the normal sort of job-creation during an expansion. Not a huge number for a single month, but then, hiring needs to catch its breath again after the March hiccup. Another spike might come in May or June.

We think we'll be very well satisfied with anything like 200,00 jobs. That would produce a two-month average of 250,000 jobs, which is "solid job growth." We have it on good authority that 236,000 jobs per month during an expansion consitutes such solid job growth:

For perspective, it helps to remember what solid job growth looks like. During Bill Clinton's eight years in office, the economy added 236,000 jobs per month. But that's just an average: a graph of monthly changes looks like an electrocardiogram.

Actually, we have it on good authority that just 200,000 jobs per month would be "serious job growth," as defined here:

unless we start to see serious job growth — by which I mean increases in payroll employment of more than 200,000 a month — consumer spending will eventually slide, and bring growth down with it.

Says who? Says Clinton-loving Princeton Pixie Paul Krugman, that's sez who.

Now, that was Clinton's average over eight full years, but then, he began with a growing economy and didn't put the economy into recession until Bush's term.

If the Bush Boom manages to match the good professor's previously-defined bars for "serious" and "solid" growth creation, we have this crazy idea that Krugman will paint it as "disappointing" or even "disastrous" news.

No word, yet, on when the Democrats will begin revising their "2.3 million jobs lost" rhetoric. In fact, the last time we'd heard, they'd actually upped it to 2.6 million, despite the fact that we've been gaining jobs, not losing them, for seven months.

At some point our supremely objective press corps will, no doubt, begin to correct them.

But Aren't We Now Spinning Expectations, Downwards? Yeah, there's some of that going on here. But the media is ready to define 308,000 jobs in a month as the floor for basic, ordinary success, when it clearly is not. 308,000 jobs in a month is a smashing success, something Paul Krugman spins as "nothing special," and yet Bill Clinton only managed this "nothing special" little trick 21% of the time during his "miracle economy."

It would seem rather unfair to demand Bush achieve with 100% consistency what Bill Clinton managed just over one time out of five. We know the media has different standards for Democrats, but even they must comprehend that their ability to impose differing standards is somewhat limited when simple, irrefutable math is involved.

With the threat of terrorism still very real, it's harder to get businesses to commit to hiring than it is to get to second base with an Up With People! background dancer.

And Bush's poll numbers sort-of indicate that there probably isn't yet mad-hiring going on. The public doesn't need the media to tell it the economy is dramatically improving (although it helps; and we can't count of them eagerly putting out the message as they did for Bill Clinton in 1996). If a lot of people are being hired, one would think that Bush's poll numbers, especially on the economy and right track/wrong track, would be trending up. They're not.

On the plus side, the surging tax revenues might actually indicate some real jobs-growth. Or it might just indicate that a lot of highly-paid people are suddenly being paid a lot more and are getting massively caught by the Alternate Minimum Tax.

posted by Ace at 07:07 AM