The Coming 3rd Party Catastrophe

So, I'm reading the encouraging posts that Ace has up about Giuliani beating Hillary! and Obama, and I can't help but be depressed.

Why? Because these polls assume something that I don't think is going to happen. They assume a "traditional" election model in which there are two major nominees, and the "third party" candidates have no impact.

Sadly, I believe this election is shaping up to be like 1968 all over again.

What happened in 1968 you ask? LBJ, weakened by an unpopular war, decided against running again. The Democratic nominee was an unapologetic liberal. The Republican nominee was to the left of the party. And a populist third party candidate, appealing to disaffected law and order/anti-hippy conservatives in the South almost siphoned enough votes away to cost the GOP a certain victory.

Let's look at 2008. We have a supposedly "unpopular" war, and a President who can not run, and a VP who isn't going to do so. The Democratic nominee will be an unrepentant liberal (either Hillary! or Obamessiah). The GOP nominee will likely be to the left of a significant portion of his party (and I believe that, barring a significant series of mistakes or some bombshell "Giulianigate" story Giuliani will be the nominee).

So where's the problem? John McCain.

I think he is going to be the George Wallace of the 2008 election. And I think that, much like George Wallace did, he will siphon enough votes to either toss Red States to the Dems or to throw the election into the House of Representatives by winning a couple outright.

The stories of McCain's admiration for the 3rd Party candidacy of Teddy Roosevelt are legendary.

More troubling, though, are the rumors (and that's what they are, rumors) I'm hearing in the DC circles I run in that the McCain folks are already planning a third party "National Unity" run. Supposedly, they are following polls that show them steadily losing ground, and this contingency plan is being put into action.

Which isn't surprising to me in the least. I think McCain's ego is such that he would hand the election to the Democrats in a fit of pique, should Republican primary voters reject him.

In 1968, Nixon feared Wallace would throw the election to Humphrey.

In 2008, I fear a vengeful McCain will throw the election to the Democratic nominee.

Which is why I would like to see the bigwigs on the Right Side of the 'Sphere, and the Conservative Media outlets like National Review and The Weekly Standard (ya, I know Kristol is a McCain sycophant) grill him on this very question.

Don't accept answers from John Weaver (McCain's Top Political Strategist), or any of the other "representatives" of the McCain campaign.

Ask Mr. Straight Talk himself about whether he will support the GOP nominee regardless of who it may be. Ask him if he will categorically rule out running as a third party candidate.

At the very least, his answers today might be useful. Should he "flip flop" and run (after having disavowed it) that could help undercut his future support. Should he say he won't rule it out, or some other weak ass answer, that could help undercut his current support.

So press him.

I shouldn't have to do your jobs for ya.

Besides, he doesn't return my calls.

Update 1: Changed a mispelled word in the title.

Update 2: Nader will run, as some in the comments suggest. He will be a non factor, and I doubt his presence will contribute to determining the outcome as it arguably did in 2000. In my opinion, only McCain poses a viable 3rd party threat. I don't believe any of the other prominent GOP contenders would be tempted to do it.

posted by Jack M. at 04:24 PM

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